General Situation:
This Monday, moderate southwesterly flow in the Channel, on the edge of an anticyclone centered in the Baltic Sea.
Tuesday, sustained southerly flow leaving the Channel ahead of a cold front stretching from the Azores to Scotland.
Wednesday, moderate southwesterly flow in the Bay of Biscay, ahead of a cold front and moderate northwesterly flow behind it.
Sea conditions this Monday, August 26
After rounding Cape Hague last night, the fleet is passing north of the island of Sainte-Anne in the middle of the morning. Alexis Loison on GROUPE REEL is leading the leg and the entire fleet is stretching out over around 550 miles. They are now sailing reaching under a well-established and moderate southwesterly flow of 15-20 knots with still quite a few waves, of almost 2 metres. This afternoon, the flow will gradually pick up, remaining around 13-18 knots. The wind will have completely shifted to the south this evening, around 10-15 knots, before strengthening again (20-25 knots) during the course of the next night, as a front approaches from the west. The fleet should tack to set course for the Wolf Rock mark, which they should pass southwest of British Cornwall, in the second part of the night.
Sea conditions this Tuesday, August 27
The wind will then be well established between 20-25 knots, still ahead of the same cold front, almost stationary. They will begin their descent towards the Bay of Biscay, close-hauled and will then be forced to tack, in order to maintain their course towards Cijon. The wind will tend to strengthen at midday with a few gusts to 30 knots, before the flow takes a little to the right at the end of the day, while weakening slightly. Note that they will have to face a very disordered sea, with the swell coming from the west, confronting the wind sea raised by the sustained southerly wind. In the second part of the afternoon, the wind will veer more southwest again and will weaken significantly in the evening, between 13 and 18 knots.
Sea conditions this Wednesday, August 28
The southwesterly flow will continue to turn right at the end of the night, while weakening, between 8 and 10 knots. Behind the cold front and under the effect of the Azores high pressure system swelling from behind, the sailors will recover a moderate northwesterly flow of 10-15 knots. This should allow them to slide on reaching, towards Spain. They will maintain these moderate northwesterly conditions until the evening.
Sea conditions this Thursday, August 29
Uncertainties are gradually being lifted for this end of the leg since the swelling of the Azores high pressure system from the west will allow the skippers to recover a moderate northwesterly flow at the end of the night from Wednesday to Thursday, around 10-15 knots. However, this flow will turn to the north-northeast in the afternoon, while weakening significantly to around 5-10 knots. It should maintain these weak conditions until the finish at the end of the afternoon but will thus avoid conditions that are too soft to finish this leg.