General Situation:
This Sunday, weak northwesterly wind conditions prevail, under the effect of a ridge extending from the coast of Portugal to the south of the Bay of Biscay, ahead of a disturbed regime over the nearby Atlantic with a cold front circulating at the level of the 12°W meridian.
Monday, sustained north-northwest regime over the western Bay of Biscay and the nearby Atlantic on the edge of an anticyclone at 1031 hPa centered northwest of the Azores archipelago.
Tuesday, weak to moderate and irregular north to northwest flow over the southern part of the Bay of Biscay, on the edge of an anticyclone at 1033 hPa centered at 45°N and 30°W.
Weather conditions in Gijon
Sunday September 1st
Overcast and humid weather in the morning with patches of mist and some drizzle. Clear spells returning from midday with dry weather in the afternoon.
Wind: variable, light in the morning, north to northwest 10 to 15 km/h in the afternoon
Temperatures: 20 to 23°C
Risk of precipitation: 30%
Weather conditions for the start of the race in Gijon this Sunday, September 1st at 2 p.m.
Light wind conditions await the Figaro fleet for the start of this second leg which will take them from Gijon to Royan via Cape Finisterre. The reliability is good (90%) regarding these light wind conditions at the start. At 2 p.m., an irregular north-northwest wind of 5 to 9 knots is expected on the Gijon waters. This light weather will be accompanied by a cloudy sky with some clearings. The sea will be calm with a small northwest swell of around 50 to 60 cm .
Sea conditions this Sunday, September 1st and the following night
The start of this second leg promises to be very sluggish and complicated for the sailors due to the light and irregular winds under the effect of a high pressure ridge along the Cantabrian coast in the afternoon and during the first part of the night from Sunday to Monday. They will therefore start their race under light irregular north to northwest airs, forcing them to sail close-hauled with numerous maneuvers and sail adjustments to make. In the evening at the heart of the ridge, the risk of calm (absence of wind) is significant. They will find themselves stuck on the water and will have to be patient to watch for the slightest gust that will allow them to progress on the water. In the middle of the night, the wind conditions will remain light but the flow will take on a southerly component ahead of a cold front that will sweep the fleet around 4-5am bringing rain and a sudden strengthening of the wind with a veering to the northwest. This will be a relief for the Figaro sailors who will finally find good sailing speeds thanks to this northwest wind of 15 to 20 knots. This will allow them to set a course southwest towards Cape Ortégal, at the northwest tip of Spain.
Weather conditions at sea Monday September 2
At daybreak on Monday, the gaps within the fleet could already be significant after several hours of very irregular winds before the passage of the cold front. On Monday morning, the sailors will progress by reaching in a northwesterly wind of around fifteen knots; they will be able to relax a little after this complicated start to the leg. A speed race will begin between the skippers to go around the island of Sisarga Grande, southwest of the Bay of La Coruña. On Monday afternoon, the wind will take from the right to veer north between 12 and 15 knots. It will become a little more irregular and the sailors will have to keep their wits about them, especially as the sea state will deteriorate with more than 2 m of waves arriving on the starboard side of the boats. It is on Monday evening that the first skippers should go around the island of Sisarga Grande and begin their ascent towards the Bay of Biscay. During the night from Monday to Tuesday, they will sail close-hauled in a northerly wind of 12 to 15 knots. At the end of the night near Cape Ortegal, they will have to tack as the wind will take a little to the right to veer north-northeast.
Weather conditions at sea Tuesday September 3
On Tuesday morning, the Figaro sailors will begin crossing the Bay of Biscay towards Royan. Tactical choices will be made regarding their trajectory to reach the Charente coast. They will have to watch the weather forecast closely to see how the edge of the high pressure area located north of the Azores and the installation of a ridge of high pressure, more or less established according to the forecast models, will behave in the southern part of the Bay of Biscay. This Monday morning, the sailors will be sailing under a north-northeast wind of around 10 knots. They will therefore progress a little less quickly than the day before with a trajectory close to the direct route, but differences in latitude may already be observed depending on the race strategies. The sea will remain rough to strong with the persistence of a northwest swell of more than 2 metres which will hinder the progress of the boats. In the afternoon, under the effect of a ridge of high pressure arriving from the west, the winds will become more irregular and will continue to weaken. Gaps could widen within the fleet depending on the route options chosen. In the evening and during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the conditions will return to the left a little to orient north-northwest. It will continue to be irregular under the effect of a pseudo ridge in the heart of the Bay of Biscay, coming to play spoilsport. A situation that will put our sailors to the test.
Weather conditions at sea Wednesday September 4
For this Wednesday, the reliability of the weather forecasts remains limited because significant differences persist according to the different atmospheric models. Our probabilistic Meteo Consult scenario opts for the persistence of an irregular north to northwest flow between the Atlantic high and a depression on the European continent. The sailors would therefore continue to sail close-hauled in the Bay of Biscay under an irregular wind of around ten knots, oscillating between the northwest and the north. The sea will calm down a little but will remain rough with waves of 1.5 m to 2 m. The gaps between the skippers could continue to widen depending on the various trajectory options.
Cyrille DUCHESNE, METEO CONSULT